Currently Obsessed With...Sugarfina Candy Boutique

MARKET COMMENTARY FOR WEEK OF August 13, 2018

We like a good cheat day as much as the next chick...and it should be pretty obvious that we like most everything with a side of special. Our gummy candy is no exception.

With flavors infused with Casamigos Tequila, Tito’s Handmade Vodka, Corona Light, Champagne, and Rosé, Sugarfina’s got special on lock.

Whether you use them as a topper in a signature drink or prefer them straight with no chaser, they are delicioso! We’ve noticed these lux gummies popping up at our favorite places: NordstromBergdorf Goodman , and Balducci’s . While Sugarfina and Bergdorf Goodman aren’t publicly traded, you can buy shares of stock in Nordstrom (JWN) which was $52.58 at the close on Friday.

#WeAreTheWorld

Last week investors did a double take as the market posted positive returns and then they were gone like Ruby Rose's Twitter account.  Both events made us sad. The S&P was down 0.2% for the week, its first weekly loss since late June. What caused the sudden pivot? Some of this was due to straight tomfoolery in Turkey indicating, once again, that we are a global village and what happens in one part of the world sometimes has a ripple effect.

LET'S BE CLEAR...

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Overall, earnings season has been strong but last week 8 of the 11 sectors (a section of the economy made up of businesses that share a similar product or service) in the S&P 500 index declined.

Industrials, materials, consumer staples (things we absolutely need), and real estate were down. On the flip side, consumer discretionary (things we don’t need but absolutely want - basically everything on the Lux List), information technology (companies like Apple and Amazon), and telecom services (think AT&T, and Verizon) were up. It’s been 133 days since the S&P hit its award-winning high. But the U.S. doesn’t exist in a vacuum. Turkey’s currency acted up and we felt the tantrum in our neck of the woods...but first, Tesla.

Tesla

There are some things you just don’t do...like yell “fire” in a crowded theater, scream “please don’t hit me,” to your parents in public when you’re a kid, and if you’re Elon Musk, you don’t go on Twitter and make major Tesla announcements. But of course, he did.

Last Tuesday Elon, tweeted that he'd “secured financing,” to buy out (buy back) shares of Tesla for $420 per share, which would be 16% higher than the share price at the time, essentially taking the company private (the opposite of public, meaning that shares of Tesla stock would no longer be available for the public to buy). So, what?

Let’s back this up and glamsplain. Say, you walk into Bloomingdales and buy a cute shirt for $50 and when you walk out someone offers to buy the shirt from you for $58. If you wanted to make money moves like Cardi B, you might walk back into Bloomies and buy a few more shirts to sell for the higher price. This is exactly what happened to Tesla stock when Elon made his announcement. It started a frenzy of trading in Tesla shares even though investors weren’t sure if his tweet was legit. So, what’s the big deal? The event is interesting for a few reasons:

  • Nasdaq (the exchange, not the index) requires companies to give them a heads up (at least 10 minutes) before they release “material news announcements.”

  • Usually, an exchange will stop trading of a company’s shares if it lets them know that they’re about to spill some major tea that could influence investors’ trading decisions. The halt is typically lifted after clarifying information is released. 

  • Musk Tweeted at 12:48pm, NASDAQ didn’t halt trading until 2:08pm. They then resumed trading in Tesla shares at 3:45pm but investors still weren’t clear what was going on.

  • The time lag and the trading halt has Wall Street nerds wondering if NASDAQ even knew about the announcement. If not, that may be a violation of the rules.

  • The SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission), the federal agency that ensures everything is Gucci with investors is currently investigating the sitch.

Turkey

The value of Turkey’s bread, cheese, and dough has been taking a nosedive off the high board since January and it hit an all-time low, like Jon Bellion , on Thursday night. Turkey’s stock market has also fallen 17%, while its inflation rate has risen to 15%... which is nuts compared to the U.S. annual inflation rate of 2.9% (as of July 2018). Turkey, like Jay-Z circa 2004 (The Black Album), clearly has 99 problems but a strong economy isn’t one. Here’s the list:

  • Turkish companies did a lot of borrowing and may not be good for it.

  • Turkey and Trump...not so much. Trump hit the country with sanctions last week in response to Turkey detaining an American pastor, Andrew Brunson (for like two years) over ties to political groups...allegedly.

  • On Friday, Trump said he would double down on tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum.

  • In most nations (including the US), the government can’t be bossy like Kelis and tell its central bank what to do. But Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan has been all up in the central bank’s mix. Last month he pulled rank and said he would appoint the bankers that set the county’s interest rates. He also put his son-in-law in charge of economic policy.

PBDs (Pretty Big Deals)

  • Snapchat (SNAP) - Shares of Snapchat rose in response to positive earnings released Tuesday night. The company beat Wall Street nerds’ expectations on earnings. But the stock tumbled 6.8% after earnings were overshadowed by a decline in (DAU) daily active users.

  • Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal of Saudi Arabia announced that he purchased $250 million worth of Snapchat on May 25th at an average cost of $11 per share. Apparently, he and CEO Evan Spiegel hung out while the CEO visited Riyadh. The prince is a true believer in Snapchatand his stake is now worth 2.3% of the company.

  • Walt Disney (DIS) – Mickey’s stock slid 2.2% on Wednesday after missing quarterly earnings estimates. Disney is a component of the DOW (index of 30 stocks thought by Wall Street nerds to be running things in the larger US economy. But these stocks have to stay hot or else they are out. The DOW has changed its crew members 51 times since 1928, so the mouse definitely contributed to the DOW’s decline for the week.

  • UberLyft – NYC officials voted to stop issuing licenses to ride-share companies like Uber and Lyft. They said they needed time to study the ride-share industry

  • Alarm.com (ALRM) – The safety blanket in app form announced earnings Tuesday night and the stock rallied after the good news.

  • Boot Barn (BOOT) – The western wear brand’s earnings came in and its stock did a happy dance on Tuesday night.

  • Zillow Group (ZG) – Everyone’s favorite real estate stalking website released earnings last week and it wasn’t a good look. They reported losses of $3.1 million (2 cents per share) and announced plans to buy a mortgage company. The stock dropped it like is wasn’t hot plunging 18% in extended trading on Monday.

  • Etsy (ETSY) – the handmade/vintage e-commerce site dropped there second quarter earnings last week and they were hand-crafted and wrapped in a pretty bow. There revenue was $132.4 million vs. Wall Street predictions of $127 million. They killed EBITA at $27.6 million vs. the Street’s predictions of $21.3 million.What in the world is EBITA? See our Glamsplain on the nerd metric here.

The Lux List

  • Nike (NKE) – The women of Nike, a group of former female employees, is suing the brand for gender discrimination claiming that Nike didn’t play nice with girls when it came to promotions, pay, and overall work environment. Nike stock closed at $80.73 on Friday down $0.53. Year-to-date, Nike is up 29.82%. We’ll be watching to see how the drama unfolds.

  • Michael Kors (KORS) – Was killin'em on Wednesday when it announced it had its strongest quarters in the past three years. Its total sales increased by 26.3% due mostly to the performance of Jimmy Choo.KORS bought Jimmy last year for a cool $1.2 billion. We’re guessing theKORS team is poppin' bottles over that decision. The stock rose 6.7% on Aug 8 and another 3.3% the next day. The stock closed at $72.67 on Friday.

  • Fossil Group (FOSL) – Why is Fossil on the Lux List? Because it designs, manufactures and distributes BurberryMicheleMarc JacobsTory Burch, Michael KorsSkagenKate Spade and numerous other lux watch lines. It released earnings on Tuesday night and investors hollered back in response, making the stock rise.

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Squad Goals

We Ask and Our Squad Answers
Our squad is comprised of ten Wall Street experts from the top asset management firms. Each week we ask them a question, and they poll in!

Do you think Tesla will really buyout their stock and go private?
80% think No
20% think Its's possible

Agree with the squad? Tell us on Twitter #SavvySquadPoll

Weekly Moves

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Heads Up

  • Tapestry (TPR) – (Coach, Kate Spade New York, Stuart Weitzman) - Earnings 8/14

  • Retail sales report released on 8/15

  • Housing starts released on 8/16

  • Estee Lauder (EL) – Rumor has it earnings will be releases on 8/20

  • Alibaba (BABA) – Earnings released 8/23

Marlon Bovell